Historical redlining and criminal offending trajectories from adolescence to adulthood

Area-level research finds higher contemporary crime rates in historically redlined communities. However, there is a lack of multilevel research assessing the relationship between living in a historically redlined area, individual patterns of criminal offending over time, and whether this relationship varies for different racial-ethnic groups.

Data are from Waves I, III, IV, and V of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (n = 7843; ages 11-44), including recently digitized 1930s redlining maps from the Home Owners' Loan Corporation. Using age-based growth curve models, we estimate rates of criminal offending for non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White Americans who live inside (vs. outside) formerly redlined areas from adolescence to adulthood.

Starting in adolescence, Black and Hispanic respondents typically report more criminal offenses than White peers, regardless of redlining. As respondents transition to adulthood, reports of criminal offenses approach zero at an exponential rate. However, declines in criminal offenses are lagged by two years, on average, for Black and Hispanic respondents who live in redlined areas, relative to White and non-redlined counterparts.

Findings suggest formerly redlined urban areas may still promote criminal behavior, particularly for Black and Hispanic adolescents transitioning to adulthood. Future research and policy should address the long-term consequences of institutionalized segregation for public safety and community well-being.