Heat health assessment and risk simulation prediction in eastern China: a geospatial analysis

High temperatures pose significant health risks and societal challenges in China, with spatial variations in heat health risks. Furthermore, due to the constraint imposed by heat health risk assessment on the construction of the public health security framework, it is necessary to explore the heat health risk pattern of spatial distribution and the trend of future risk development in eastern China.

Based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Risk Triangle framework which is combined with natural and socio-economic factors, the heat health risk assessment index system of eastern China is established in this paper. This paper enhances the accuracy of risk maps with the aid of high-resolution imagery. It also focuses specifically on the exposure of construction workers in urban areas and agricultural workers in rural areas. This paper also evaluates the heat health risk of eastern China from 2010 to 2019 by using ArcGIS and the CA-Markov model.

The heat health risk in most areas of eastern China is predominantly highest risk, with the proportion of highest and medium risk areas increasing steadily from 2010 to 2019. The spatial distribution pattern reveals that high-risk areas are concentrated in the central urban areas, while low-risk areas are primarily in the mountainous regions, suburbs, rural areas, and water source areas. The conversion of heat health risk areas mainly occurs between adjacent levels, with no mutation process. From 2010 to 2025, the heat health risk of eastern China has been improving, and the overall distribution pattern of risk levels remains consistent.

The research findings provide a basis for us to gain a deeper understanding of the vulnerability of different groups. This study not only presents spatial distribution maps of health risks, but offers a new perspective for us to comprehend the complexity and diversity of these risks. The research findings also establish a foundation for optimizing monitoring and warning systems. Furthermore, this study provides scientific evidence for policymakers to develop comprehensive heatwave mitigation plans. Nevertheless, we must acknowledge the limitations of the research and recognize that there is room for improvement in the future.