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Future climate response to observed strong El Niño analogues
Paloma Trascasa-Castro1,2, Yohan Ruprich-Robert1, Amanda C Maycock2
1Earth Sciences Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain.
NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science
|March 24, 2025
Summary
Future climate change will intensify the effects of strong El Niño events in some regions, like North America and Australia, while weakening them in others. Background climate changes, not El Niño teleconnections, are the main drivers of these future climate impacts.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Atmospheric Science
- Oceanography
Background:
- El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly influences global weather patterns.
- Understanding future climate change impacts on ENSO teleconnections is crucial for adaptation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the effects of future climate change on the boreal winter response to strong El Niño events.
- To differentiate between changes in El Niño teleconnections and background climate changes.
Main Methods:
- Utilized pacemaker simulations with the EC-Earth3-CC climate model.
- Constrained simulations towards observed tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies.
- Applied Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 (SSP2-4.5).
Main Results:
- Strong El Niño's surface temperature response intensifies in North America, North Africa, Australia, and the North Atlantic.
- Future strong El Niño events show weaker climate impacts in South America and Africa.
- Temperature extremes shift: more cool days in eastern North America, fewer warm days in northern South America.
Conclusions:
- Background climate change is the dominant factor influencing the absolute climate response to future strong El Niño events.
- Teleconnections of El Niño events are projected to change under future climate scenarios.
- Regional climate impacts of El Niño will vary, necessitating tailored adaptation strategies.
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