Can sustainable policies drive TOD effectively? Insights from multi-scenario simulations

Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) is essential for urban sustainability; however, existing research struggles to directly observe the impact of future policy interventions on TOD sustainability. To address this research gap, this study takes the Den-en-toshi Line, which connects central Tokyo with suburban areas in Kanagawa Prefecture, as a clue. By integrating sustainable urban policies of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area, the study examines various changes in TOD station areas from urban to suburban contexts. With the Node-Place-Ecology (NPE) model, this study utilizes the K-means clustering and Sustainable Development Line (SDL) analysis to identify TOD station areas with different sustainability statuses. Additionally, through scenario analysis and sensitivity testing, it further evaluates the potential for these TOD station areas to progress towards sustainability under varying policy interventions. Results reveal that, at the micro level, Shibuya Station demonstrates stable sustainability performance under different scenarios. In contrast, Ikejiri-Ohashi and Nagatsuta Stations exhibit varying degrees of sustainability decline due to limited adaptability to policy changes, particularly in urban ecological development. Meanwhile, we found that the monopolization of core stations in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area, represented by Shibuya Station, is expected to continue strengthening in the future.