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COVID-19's causal impact on child abuse and socioeconomic status: a Bayesian time series study

Foad Kazemi1, Jiaqi Liu2, Isam W Nasr3

  • 1Department of Neurosurgery, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA. fkazemi1@jh.edu.

Pediatric Research
|March 25, 2025
PubMed

Insights

The COVID-19 pandemic saw a significant rise in child abuse and traumatic brain injury (TBI) admissions. This increase correlated with worsening socioeconomic conditions, highlighting the need for targeted interventions.

Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Pediatric Trauma
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated psychosocial stressors, potentially increasing child abuse rates.
  • Understanding the pandemic's impact on child abuse and TBI is crucial for public health.
  • Previous research indicates a link between socioeconomic factors and child maltreatment.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compare child abuse and TBI admission trends before and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • To assess the pandemic's causal impact on child abuse/TBI admissions and socioeconomic status.
  • To analyze changes in injury severity and neighborhood disadvantage during the pandemic.

Main Methods:

  • A 7-year retrospective study at a Level-1 Pediatric Trauma Center.
  • Utilized ICD-10 codes for TBI identification and the Social Deprivation Index (SDI) for neighborhood disadvantage.
  • Employed Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) modeling to determine the pandemic's causal effect.

Main Results:

  • Child abuse admissions increased by 48.9% and TBI admissions by 50.8% during the pandemic.
  • A significant causal impact of COVID-19 was found on monthly child abuse and TBI admissions.
  • Neighborhood disadvantage (SDI) showed an upward trend, while injury severity (ISS) decreased during the pandemic.

Conclusions:

  • The COVID-19 pandemic is associated with a significant rise in child abuse and TBI admissions.
  • Worsening socioeconomic conditions, indicated by increased SDI, accompanied the rise in child abuse cases.
  • Findings underscore the need for proactive interventions and ongoing surveillance to protect children.
Abstract

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