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Updated: May 20, 2025

Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions

Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions

Published on: March 31, 2023

Demographic changes will shape planetary biodiversity.

Alfredo Cisneros-Pineda¹, Abhishek Chaudhary², Uris L C Baldos¹

¹Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, Indiana, USA.

The Science of the Total Environment

|March 26, 2025

Summary

Future population growth, especially in Africa, will drive significant biodiversity loss. Slowing growth in wealthy nations may offer some conservation benefits, highlighting regional demographic impacts on species.

Keywords:

Biodiversity footprints Consumption-based accounting Countryside species-area relationship Demography Forecast GTAP-AEZ Global trade Land-use change Uncertainty

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Area of Science:

Ecology
Environmental Economics
Demography

Background:

Global population growth and economic development threaten natural capital and ecosystem services.
Previous research has not fully isolated the impact of regional demographic shifts on global biodiversity patterns.

Purpose of the Study:

To quantify the impact of changing demographic dynamics on global biodiversity loss.
To identify key economic drivers and market mechanisms contributing to land-use change and biodiversity decline.
To project future biodiversity loss under different population growth scenarios.

Main Methods:

Integrated a computational general equilibrium economic model (GTAP-AEZ) with biodiversity characterization factors.
Projected species loss (mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles, plants) due to land-use change from 2021-2041 under a business-as-usual economic scenario.
Analyzed demographic change as a sole driver, comparing historical (2001-2021) and future (2021-2041) population trends.
Assessed uncertainty using United Nations Probabilistic Population Projections.
Identified economic sectors and market mechanisms (import substitution, direct/indirect trade increases) driving land-use change.

Main Results:

Continued strong population growth in Africa is projected to cause more rapid biodiversity loss.
Slowing population growth in wealthier countries is expected to benefit biodiversity in certain regions.
Identified specific economic sectors and trade-related market mechanisms as key drivers of land-use change and biodiversity loss across regions.

Conclusions:

Demographic trends are a critical, regionally differentiated driver of global biodiversity loss.
Understanding these linkages is essential for achieving global biodiversity targets and Sustainable Development Goal 15 (Life on Land).
Findings offer actionable insights for businesses, governments, and conservationists to mitigate biodiversity decline.