Modeling the variability of temperature on the population dynamics of Anopheles arabiensis

Mosquitoes, notorious vectors of numerous diseases transmitted through bites, pose a significant public health threat, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. Climate change may affect the risk of mosquito-borne diseases. This study investigated how temperature affects the population dynamics of all stages of Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes, including eggs, larvae, pupae, and adults. We developed and analyzed a mathematical model that incorporates logistic growth and temperature. The well-posedness of the proposed model was proved. We demonstrated that if the non-autonomous basic reproduction number is less than unity, the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable. Conversely, if it is greater than unity, there exists at least one positive periodic solution, as established by applying the comparison theorem and the theory of uniform persistence. Furthermore, the model parameters were fitted to real-world data conducted in the Tropical and Infectious Diseases Research Center (TIDRC) in Sekoru, Jimma University. The model presents the population dynamics of both immature and adult An. Arabiensis, which is similar to the observed experimental data obtained from TIDRC. Therefore, our model suggests that using the results obtained, it can be used to predict the impact of various intervention strategies on An. arabiensis distribution.