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Eco-evolutionary dynamics of pathogen immune-escape: deriving a population-level phylodynamic curve
Bjarke Frost Nielsen1, Chadi M Saad-Roy2,3, C Jessica E Metcalf4
1High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
|April 2, 2025
Summary
This study introduces a new model to predict when and how viral immune escape variants emerge. It reveals that seasonality and case importation influence variant emergence timing, impacting future pandemic preparedness.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology and Evolutionary Biology
- Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases
Background:
- The phylodynamic curve concept explains how immunity influences viral adaptation rates non-monotonically.
- Quantitative models realizing this concept are scarce, limiting predictive power for viral evolution.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop an analytic, stochastic framework for dynamic phylodynamic curve generation.
- To assess factors influencing the risk and timing of viral immune escape variant emergence.
- To evaluate the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on viral evolution.
Main Methods:
- Developed an analytic, stochastic framework to model phylodynamic curves dynamically.
- Investigated the influence of parameters like immunity strength, transmissibility, seasonality, and antigenic constraints.
- Simulated the effects of case importation and NPIs on variant emergence risk.
Main Results:
- The model dynamically generates population-scale phylodynamic curves.
- Pathogen and population parameters significantly affect immune escape variant emergence risk.
- For seasonal pathogens, emergence timing is linked to inter-regional case importation.
Conclusions:
- The framework provides a quantitative tool to study viral immune escape dynamics.
- Findings offer insights into the impact of immunity, NPIs, and pathogen characteristics on viral evolution.
- The model can inform vaccine strategies and public health interventions for common viral pathogens.
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