Lipid profiles and their association with incident carotid atherosclerosis: A community-based prospective study in...

Dyslipidemia, characterized by abnormal blood lipid levels, contributes to atherosclerosis, a condition involving arterial plaque buildup and cardiovascular events. While LDL-C and LDL-to-HDL-C ratios are established atherosclerosis predictors, the role of non-HDL-C is less explored.

A cohort of 1062 participants without carotid plaque at baseline was analyzed over a 4.0-year follow-up. Age-specific incidence rates were calculated, and baseline characteristics of those who developed plaques were compared using logistic regression and area under the ROC curve (AUROC) analysis to evaluate predictive models. Carotid plaques developed in 284 participants (87 males, 197 females). Incidence rates increased with age, reaching 41.2 % in females and 60.0 % in males aged 70-74 years. Participants with plaques were older (58.2 vs. 55.4 years, p < 0.0001), had higher BMI, blood pressure, and lipid markers, and were more likely to be male, hypertensive, or hyperlipidemic. Logistic regression identified age (OR 1.26 per 5 years), BMI (OR 1.23 per 5 kg/m²), LDL-C (OR 1.07 per 10 mg/dL), and LDL-to-HDL-C ratio (OR 1.41) as significant predictors, with HDL-C offering a protective effect. Models incorporating lipid ratios (non-HDL-to-HDL-C or LDL-to-HDL-C) showed similar predictive power (AUROC 0.636).

Carotid plaque progression correlates with age, male sex, elevated BMI, hypertension, and adverse lipid profiles. Lipid ratios and age are consistent predictors, with HDL-C demonstrating protective effects. Comparable AUROC values across models underscore the value of lipid ratios for assessing atherosclerosis risk.