Protein-Ligand Structure and Affinity Prediction in CASP16 Using a Geometric Deep Learning Ensemble and Flow Matching

Predicting the structure of ligands bound to proteins is a foundational problem in modern biotechnology and drug discovery, yet little is known about how to combine the predictions of protein-ligand structure (poses) produced by the latest deep learning methods to identify the best poses and how to accurately estimate the binding affinity between a protein target and a list of ligand candidates. Further, a blind benchmarking and assessment of protein-ligand structure and binding affinity prediction is necessary to ensure it generalizes well to new settings. Towards this end, we introduce MULTICOM_ligand, a deep learning-based protein-ligand structure and binding affinity prediction ensemble featuring structural consensus ranking for unsupervised pose ranking and a new deep generative flow matching model for joint structure and binding affinity prediction. Notably, MULTICOM_ligand ranked among the top-5 ligand prediction methods in both protein-ligand structure prediction and binding affinity prediction in the 16th Critical Assessment of Techniques for Structure Prediction (CASP16), demonstrating its efficacy and utility for real-world drug discovery efforts. The source code for MULTICOM_ligand is freely available on GitHub.