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Updated: May 15, 2025

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
Coastal zones vulnerability evaluation in the southern Baltic Sea: Shoreline dynamics and land use/land cover changes
Kamran Tanwari1, Paweł Terefenko2, Xiaohao Shi3
1Institute of Marine and Environmental Sciences, University of Szczecin, Mickiewicza 16, 70-383 Szczecin, Poland; Doctoral School, University of Szczecin, Mickiewicza 18, 70-383 Szczecin, Poland.
Abstract:
Over the past century, coastal zones have experienced significant population growth and rapid development, often conflicting with these environments' dynamic and sensitive nature. The present study investigated five decades (1972-2023) of shoreline dynamics and land-use/land-cover (LULC) transformations along three study sectors located on a 47 km stretch of the Southern Baltic coastline. The research employed eleven multispectral Landsat MSS/TM/OLI images within a geographic information system (GIS) framework to analyze coastline variations and LULC patterns. Results showed significant accretion in Sector I (Usedom), while Sectors II and III (Wolin) experienced marked erosion. Over the entire study period, 29.59 % (3.21 km), 39.90 % (4.51 km), and 67.54 % (9.45 km) of the shorelines in Sector-I, Sector-II, and Sector-III experienced erosion. The distance correlation showed that hydrometeorological variables associated with wind-wave dynamics, exerted a stronger influence on shoreline changes. The LULC change analysis highlighted a decline in forest cover (-846.86 ha) and increased built-up areas (+1137.86) across all sectors. These results enabled the identification of four coastal vulnerability zones-one in Usedom and three in Wolin-characterized by pronounced erosion, forest degradation, and urban expansion. These findings can inform coastal management strategies by identifying high-risk zones, guiding sustainable development practices, and prioritizing areas for conservation and intervention.
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