Association between alactic base excess on mortality in sepsis patients: a retrospective observational study

Sepsis is a life-threatening condition often associated with metabolic and acid-base imbalances. Alactic base excess (ABE) has emerged as a novel biomarker to assess metabolic disturbances in critically ill sepsis patients, but its prognostic value remains underexplored. We aimed to investigate the relationship between ABE and 30-day/90-day ICU all-cause mortality in a large sepsis cohort in the intensive care unit (ICU) setting.

This study utilised data from a large US ICU sepsis cohort. ABE was calculated as the sum of lactate and base excess (BE) values from the first day of ICU admission. Patients were divided into quartiles based on ABE values. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, Cox proportional hazards models, and restricted cubic spline analyses were used to examine the associations between ABE and mortality outcomes. The predictive performance of ABE combined with the SOFA score was assessed using the area under the curve, Net Reclassification Improvement, and Integrated Discrimination Improvement.

17,099 patients with sepsis were included in this analysis, with median (IQR) age of 67.82 (56.80, 78.04) years and 59.7% males. Our analysis revealed a U-shaped association between ABE and 30-day and 90-day ICU all-cause mortality. Both the lowest (Q1) and highest (Q4) quartiles of ABE were linked to increased mortality risks, with 30-day mortality showing HRs of 1.27 (95% CI 1.13-1.44) for Q1 and 1.17 (95% CI 1.06-1.31) for Q4, while 90-day mortality showed HRs of 1.28 (95% CI 1.16-1.44) for Q1, 1.12 (95% CI 1.02-1.23) for Q2, and 1.22 (95% CI 1.11-1.34) for Q4. ABE demonstrated superior predictive performance for mortality compared to BE and lactate. Incorporating ABE into the SOFA score improved predictive performance, emphasizing ABE's value in better risk stratification. The identified thresholds (2.5 mmol/L for 30-day mortality and 2.2 mmol/L for 90-day mortality) indicate optimal ABE levels that may be associated with improved survival outcomes.

ABE demonstrated a U-shaped association with 30-day and 90-day ICU all-cause mortality in critically ill sepsis patients, suggesting its superiority over BE and lactate as a predictive biomarker. Incorporating ABE with the SOFA score may further enhance prognostic predictions. Further studies are needed to determine whether ABE should serve solely as a biomarker for monitoring the clinical course or could also be considered a potential therapeutic target.