Analysis of Drug-Resistant Bacteria Seasonality in Japan Using Financial Time Series Analysis Method: A Nationwide...

Area of Science:

• Infectious Diseases Epidemiology
• Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance
• Hospital-Acquired Infections

Background:

• Bacterial infections and resistance patterns often exhibit seasonal variations, particularly for respiratory pathogens.
• Understanding these temporal trends in Japan is crucial for effective infection control and antimicrobial stewardship.
• Previous studies have not comprehensively analyzed seasonal and annual patterns of bacterial isolation and resistance across Japanese hospitals.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate seasonal and annual trends in bacterial isolation rates and antimicrobial resistance in Japanese hospitals.
• To identify specific patterns for key bacterial species, including Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa.
• To analyze trends in resistance to specific antimicrobial agents and resistance phenotypes like MRSA, MDRP, and CRPA.

Main Methods:

• Utilized data from the Nosocomial Infection Control Surveillance Project (JANIS) in Japan (2014-2020).
• Employed a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) (1, 1) model to analyze seasonal and annual trends.
• Controlled for hospital size and examined isolation rates and resistance patterns for specified bacteria and resistance phenotypes.

Main Results:

• Staphylococcus aureus isolation rates decreased annually, with seasonal dips in Q2-Q4, especially in smaller hospitals.
• Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae isolation rates increased annually, peaking in Q3-Q4.
• Resistance rates for MRSA, MDRP, and CRPA declined annually, but resistance to third-generation cephalosporins in E. coli and K. pneumoniae increased.

Conclusions:

• Distinct seasonal and annual patterns exist for bacterial isolation and antimicrobial resistance in Japanese healthcare settings.
• Smaller hospitals exhibited higher resistance rates, suggesting a need for enhanced antimicrobial stewardship resources and targeted interventions.
• Monitoring seasonal trends is vital for optimizing infection control strategies and combating antimicrobial resistance in Japan.