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Quantification and Whole Genome Characterization of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in Wastewater and Air Samples
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Geographical Variation in COVID-19 Transmission Potential and Case Burden, West Virginia, 2020-2023
Abigail A Buesseler1, Xinyi Hua1, Dorcas Ama Adom2
1Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health, Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, GA, USA.
Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness
|April 15, 2025
Summary
Statewide COVID-19 transmission varied, with policies like Stay-at-home Orders significantly reducing the reproduction number (Rt). Regional analysis showed differing incidence rates across West Virginia, highlighting the need for granular prevention strategies.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health Policy
- Infectious Disease Modeling
Background:
- Geographical variations in COVID-19 epidemiology necessitate substate-level analysis for targeted prevention.
- Understanding regional differences in transmission dynamics is crucial for effective public health interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze geographical variations in COVID-19 epidemiology within West Virginia.
- To estimate the impact of public health policies on COVID-19 transmission rates.
- To identify regional differences in COVID-19 incidence.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in West Virginia and its 9 regions (March 2020-March 2023).
- Estimation of time-varying reproduction number (Rt) using the EpiEstim R package and nonparametric bootstrapping.
- Poisson regression to calculate incidence rate ratios (IRR) between regions and the state.
Main Results:
- Statewide Rt peaked near 2 in March 2020 and fell below 1 in June 2020.
- Stay-at-home Orders, Face Mask Mandates, and Virtual Learning Resumes reduced Rt by 38.7%, 10.6%, and 9.4%, respectively.
- Significant regional variations in incidence rates were observed, with IRRs ranging from 0.32 to 1.90 in 2020.
Conclusions:
- Policies aimed at reducing human contact, such as Stay-at-home Orders and Virtual Learning Resumes, effectively decreased COVID-19 transmission statewide.
- Substate-level analysis reveals significant geographical disparities in COVID-19 incidence, underscoring the importance of granular public health strategies.
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