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Calculators for Predicting Risk of Cesarean Delivery: A Literature Review
Shirley J Shao1, Nasim C Sobhani2
1Resident Physician, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Weill Cornell, New York, NY.
Obstetrical & Gynecological Survey
|April 16, 2025
Summary
Obstetric calculators can predict cesarean delivery risk but often lack accuracy in new populations. Clinicians should use these tools cautiously to avoid negatively impacting maternal care and delivery outcomes.
Area of Science:
- Obstetrics and Gynecology
- Clinical Decision Support Systems
- Maternal Health
Background:
- Cesarean deliveries pose risks, necessitating accurate prediction tools to balance maternal morbidity and unnecessary interventions.
- Existing obstetric calculators aim to predict cesarean delivery risk in diverse clinical scenarios.
Purpose of the Study:
- To review major obstetric calculators for cesarean delivery risk prediction.
- To discuss their clinical applications, accuracy, and limitations.
Main Methods:
- Manual review of PubMed-published research from January 2000 to February 2024.
- Inclusion of articles detailing the creation or validation of delivery mode prediction tools for American populations.
Main Results:
- Developed obstetric calculators show fair accuracy in initial cohorts but often fail to maintain performance in external populations.
- This includes tools for predicting vaginal birth after cesarean and labor induction success.
Conclusions:
- Limited accuracy of cesarean calculators in external settings warrants caution for implementation without refinement.
- Overestimation of cesarean risk can lead to discouraged vaginal deliveries and adverse clinical outcomes.
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