Modeling biomarker kinetics of Aβ levels in serum following blast

Elucidating the unique neuropathological response to blast exposure remains a barrier towards the development of diagnostic approaches for those with blast-induced traumatic brain injury (bTBI). Quantification of biomarker concentrations in the blood post-injury is typically used to inform brain injury severity. However, injury progression and associated changes in biomarker concentrations are sensitive to parameters such as the blast overpressure (BOP) magnitude and frequency of blast exposure. Through this work, a blast-dose biomarker kinetics (BxK) platform was developed and validated for Aβ42 as a promising predictor of injury post-blast. Blast-dose responses accounting for BOP magnitude and frequency were integrated into a mathematical model accounting for whole-body Aβ peptide kinetics. Validation of the developed model was performed through comparison with acute monomer levels in the blood serum of 15 service members exposed to repeated low-level blast while undergoing three-day weapons training. Amyloid precursor protein (APP) synthesis was assumed to be proportional to blast magnitude and additive effects within a window of recovery were applied to account for cumulative exposure. Aβ42 concentrations in the blood serum were predicted within 6.5 ± 5.2% on average, demonstrating model feasibility and biomarker sensitivity to blast. Outcomes discuss how modulation of patient-specific factors (age, weight, genetic factors, years of exposure, sleep) and pathophysiological factors (BBB permeability, amyloidogenic pathology, neuroinflammation) can reveal potential sources of variability in experimental data and be incorporated into the blast-dose BxK platform in future iterations. Advancements in model complexity accounting for sex-specific factors, weapon system, stress levels, risk of symptom onset, and pharmacological treatment strategies are anticipated to improve model calibration. Utilization of this blast-dose BxK model to identify drivers of pathophysiological mechanisms and predict chronic outcomes has the potential to transform bTBI diagnostic, prognostic, and therapeutic strategies.