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Bayesian Inference of Pathogen Phylogeography using the Structured Coalescent Model.

Ian Roberts1, Richard G Everitt1,2, Jere Koskela1,3

  • 1Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.

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|April 21, 2025
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study introduces StructCoalescent, an R package for analyzing pathogen migration history using the structured coalescent model. It efficiently infers population sizes and migration rates from genomic data, improving infectious disease epidemiology.

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Area of Science:

  • Genomics
  • Epidemiology
  • Computational Biology

Background:

  • Pathogen genome sequencing is crucial for infectious disease epidemiology.
  • Phylogeographic analysis using the structured coalescent model is informative but computationally intensive for large datasets.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop an efficient method for Bayesian inference of pathogen migration history, population sizes, and migration rates.
  • To address the computational limitations of the exact structured coalescent model for large-scale genomic data.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the exact structured coalescent model on precomputed dated phylogenies.
  • Developed an efficient reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme.
  • Implemented the method in a new R package called StructCoalescent.

Main Results:

  • Demonstrated the scalability and correctness of the StructCoalescent method using simulations.
  • Compared the performance of the new method with existing software.
  • Successfully applied the method to real pathogen genomic datasets.

Conclusions:

  • The StructCoalescent package provides an efficient and scalable solution for phylogeographic analysis of pathogen genomes.
  • The method is relevant for current data scales and research questions in infectious disease epidemiology.
  • Enables robust inference of migration history, population dynamics, and rates between geographical locations.