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Development of a Nomogram Model to Predict Mortality in ANCA-Associated Vasculitis Patients With Pulmonary
Qifang Guo1, Yijia Shao1, Le Yu1
1Department of Rheumatology and Immunology, Second Affiliated Hospital, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, China.
The Clinical Respiratory Journal
|April 22, 2025
Summary
A new risk model accurately predicts mortality in antineutrophil cytoplasimc antibody associated vasculitis (AAV) patients with lung involvement. This tool uses simple clinical factors for individualized risk assessment, improving patient care.
Area of Science:
- Rheumatology
- Pulmonology
- Medical Statistics
Background:
- Antineutrophil cytoplasimc antibody associated vasculitis (AAV) with pulmonary involvement poses significant mortality risks.
- Accurate prognosis prediction is essential for managing these patients.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and internally validate a prognostic model for mortality in AAV patients with lung involvement.
- To provide individualized risk assessments for better patient management.
Main Methods:
- A cohort of 150 AAV patients with pulmonary involvement was analyzed.
- Cox proportional hazards regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator were used for model development.
- Model validation included discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis.
Main Results:
- The final model incorporated age, tumor history, hemoglobin, and forced vital capacity percentage.
- A nomogram was created to predict 1-, 2-, and 3-year mortality.
- Internal validation demonstrated strong performance with a concordance index of 0.884 and Brier score of 0.088.
Conclusions:
- A reliable risk model for AAV-related pulmonary mortality was developed using accessible clinical factors.
- The model offers accurate forecasting of future mortality risk.
