Development and Validation of a Dynamic Real-Time Risk Prediction Model for Intensive Care Units Patients Based on...

Timely and accurate prediction of short-term mortality is critical in intensive care units (ICUs), where patients' conditions change rapidly. Traditional scoring systems, such as the Simplified Acute Physiology Score and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation, rely on static variables collected within the first 24 hours of admission and do not account for continuously evolving clinical states. These systems lack real-time adaptability, interpretability, and generalizability. With the increasing availability of high-frequency electronic medical record (EMR) data, machine learning (ML) approaches have emerged as powerful tools to model complex temporal patterns and support dynamic clinical decision-making. However, existing models are often limited by their inability to handle irregular sampling and missing values, and many lack rigorous external validation across institutions.

We aimed to develop a real-time, interpretable risk prediction model that continuously assesses ICU patient mortality using irregular, longitudinal EMR data, with improved performance and generalizability over traditional static scoring systems.

A time-aware bidirectional attention-based long short-term memory (TBAL) model was developed using EMR data from the MIMIC-IV (Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care) and eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD) databases, comprising 176,344 ICU stays. The model incorporated dynamic variables, including vital signs, laboratory results, and medication data, updated hourly, to perform static and continuous mortality risk assessments. External cross-validation and subgroup sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate robustness and fairness. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC), accuracy, and F₁-score. Interpretability was enhanced using integrated gradients to identify key predictors.

For the static 12-hour to 1-day mortality prediction task, the TBAL model achieved AUROCs of 95.9 (95% CI 94.2-97.5) and 93.3 (95% CI 91.5-95.3) and AUPRCs of 48.5 and 21.6 in MIMIC-IV and eICU-CRD, respectively. Accuracy and F₁-scores reached 94.1 and 46.7 in MIMIC-IV and 92.2 and 28.1 in eICU-CRD. In dynamic prediction tasks, AUROCs reached 93.6 (95% CI 93.2-93.9) and 91.9 (95% CI 91.6-92.1), with AUPRCs of 41.3 and 50, respectively. The model maintained high recall for positive cases (82.6% and 79.1% in MIMIC-IV and eICU-CRD). Cross-database validation yielded AUROCs of 81.3 and 76.1, confirming generalizability. Subgroup analysis showed stable performance across age, sex, and severity strata, with top predictors including lactate, vasopressor use, and Glasgow Coma Scale score.

The TBAL model offers a robust, interpretable, and generalizable solution for dynamic real-time mortality risk prediction in ICU patients. Its ability to adapt to irregular temporal patterns and to provide hourly updated predictions positions it as a promising decision-support tool. Future work should validate its utility in prospective clinical trials and investigate its integration into real-world ICU workflows to enhance patient outcomes.