Climate neutrality through scenario analysis: A local authority perspective

One of the most significant contributors to world emissions is the transportation sector, which presents a considerable obstacle to decarbonization. The presented literature review considers local factors and emphasizes the important part municipalities play in developing sustainable transport policies applying the Avoid-Shift-Improve (ASI) framework. Municipalities, however, can encounter barriers including limited data, financial resources, and competency despite the advantages of scenario-based planning; hence, simpler, insight-driven methods for efficient decision-making are necessary. This research paper develops and analyses modelling scenarios to guide local authorities in achieving climate neutrality in the transport sector. A case study of Riga shows that while "avoid" policies yield moderate results, "shift" policies achieve greater reductions with earlier implementation, and "improve" policies deliver the most significant long-term effects. Combining these strategies leads to notable emission reductions but remains insufficient for achieving climate neutrality by 2050, highlighting the need for integrated solutions such as intelligent urban planning and the 20-min city concept.