Biomod2 Modeling for Predicting Suitable Distribution of Bamboo Bat (Tylonycteris pachypus) Under Climate Change

Climate change significantly impacts species distribution and survival, particularly for habitat specialists with limited dispersal abilities. This study investigates the current and future distribution of Tylonycteris pachypus, one of the world's smallest bats specialized in bamboo-dwelling, using ensemble modeling approaches. Based on comprehensive occurrence data and seven environmental variables, we developed an ensemble model using the Biomod2 platform, achieving high predictive accuracy (AUC: 0.981, TSS: 0.877). Three environmental variables were identified as crucial determinants: minimum temperature of the coldest month (40.90% contribution), maximum temperature of the warmest month (38.38%), and precipitation of the wettest quarter (11.09%). Currently, highly suitable habitats (291.893 × 10⁴ km²) are concentrated in three main regions: southern China and Indochina Peninsula, Myanmar-Bangladesh-northeastern India, and isolated areas in southwest India and Thailand. Under future climate scenarios, particularly SSP585, suitable habitats are projected to decrease substantially (64.4% reduction by 2090s), with a notable northward shift in distribution. However, the species' limited dispersal ability, specific habitat requirements, and geographical barriers may constrain its capacity to track these climate-driven changes. Our findings highlight the vulnerability of T. pachypus to climate change and emphasize the need for targeted conservation strategies, including protecting climate-resilient habitats and maintaining bamboo forest corridors. This study provides a comprehensive framework for monitoring and conserving this specialized species under climate change, while considering its unique ecological constraints and dispersal limitations.