Protected areas mitigate the reduction in habitat suitability for swans under climate change: A case study in the...

Changes in migratory birds' habitats are important indicators of the health of global ecosystems. However, the habitat dynamics of the flagship swan species in China's major river basins and the adaptive strategies these species employ to respond to climate change have remained unclear. Using citizen science data, survey data, and species distribution models, we explored how three future climate scenarios for 2040-2060 affect habitat suitability for migratory swans in the Yellow River Basin. We also evaluated the role of protected areas (PAs) in mitigating the negative impacts of climate change. We found that (1) under current climate conditions, the Mute Swan (Cygnus olor), the Bewick's Swan (Cygnus columbianus bewickii), and the Whooper Swan (Cygnus cygnus) occupy substantial suitable habitats, with the Whooper Swan having the most extensive range. (2) the Mute Swan and the Bewick's Swan were predicted to experience the largest habitat loss under the high-emission scenario, while the Whooper Swan would benefit from climate change by gaining suitable habitat, especially under the medium-emission scenario. (3) PAs were most effective in mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on habitat suitability for the Mute Swan, followed by the Whooper Swan, with limited mitigating effect for the Bewick's Swan. These findings highlight the need for species-specific conservation strategies and the critical role of PAs in preserving habitat suitability under climate change.