Beyond carbon: Environmental and social impacts of Japan's vehicle electrification transition

This study evaluates Japan's transition to electrified vehicles by analyzing environmental and social impacts across the vehicle life cycle (2020-2050) under three scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU), Widespread, and the 2035 internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) ban. Using Environmentally Extended Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (EEIO-LCA) with the LIME3 method, environmental impacts on human health, social assets, biodiversity, and primary production were monetized into a unified monetary indicator (USD). Social impacts were quantified via Social Life Cycle Assessment using the Social Hotspot Database. Cumulative environmental impacts are projected at 236.6, 237, and 231.1 billion USD for BAU, Widespread, and ICEV ban scenarios, respectively. While rapid electrification reduces human health impacts during operation phase, these gains are offset by increased impacts from manufacturing and electricity generation. Social impacts reach 9,410, 11,133, and 15,268 billion medium risk hours equivalent for the respective scenarios, with over 50 % of social impacts by 2050 shifting to China, Rest of Asia, and Africa under the ICEV ban scenario due to battery production. Our result shows that the ICEV ban could reduce environmental impacts by 2.3 % compared to BAU but increases social impacts by 62 %. It indicates that high electrification slightly lowers environmental impacts but greatly increases social impacts. Extending battery lifespans and improving fuel economy could reduce the ICEV ban's environmental and social impacts to 190.5 billion USD and 9921.4 billion mrheq, respectively. Complementary measures-like supply chain due diligence and transparency, environmentally and socially integrated policy design, battery recycling-are essential to prevent unintended global social consequences.