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Behaviour quantification of public health policy adoption - the case of non-pharmaceutical measures during COVID-19
Rhiannon Loster1, Sarah Smook1, Lia Humphrey1
1Department of Mathematics, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Rd E, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada.
Abstract:
In this work, we provide estimates of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) adoption and its effects on the COVID-19 disease transmission across the province of Ontario, Canada, in 2020. Using freely available data, we estimate perceived risks of infection and a personal discomfort with complying with NPIs for Ontarians across 34 public health units. With the use of game theory, we model a time series of decision making processes in each public health region to extract an estimate of the adoption level of NPIs from March to December 2020. In conjunction with a susceptible-exposed-recovered-isolated compartmental model for Ontario, we are able to estimate a province-wide effectiveness level of NPIs. Last but not least, we show the model's versatility by applying it to Pennsylvania and Georgia in the United States.
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