Development and validation of machine learning models for predicting no. 253 lymph node metastasis in left-sided...

The appropriate ligation level of the inferior mesenteric artery (IMA) in left-sided colorectal cancer (CRC) surgery is debated, with metastasis in No. 253 lymph node (No. 253 LN) being a key determining factor. This study aimed to develop a machine learning model for predicting metastasis in No. 253 LN.

We retrospectively collected clinical data from 2,118 patients with left-sided CRC and contrast-enhanced CT images from 310 of these patients. From this data, a test set, a training set, and a temporal validation set were constructed. Logistic regression models were used to develop a clinical model, a CT model, and a radiomics model, which were then integrated into a combined model using logical rules. Finally, these models were evaluated using metrics such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), precision-recall (PR) curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).

A clinical model, a CT model, and a radiomics model were constructed using univariate logistic regression. A combined model was developed by integrating the clinical, CT, and radiomics models, with positivity defined as all three models being positive at a 90% sensitivity threshold. The clinical model included six predictive factors: tumor site, endoscopic obstruction, CEA levels, growth type, differentiation grade, and pathological classification. The CT model utilized largest lymph node average CT value, short-axis diameter and long-axis diameter. The radiomics model incorporated maximum gray level intensity within the region of interest, large area high gray level emphasis, small area high gray level emphasis and surface area to volume ratio. In the test set, the AUCs for the clinical, CT, radiomics, and combined models were 0.694, 0.663, 0.72, and 0.663, respectively, while in the temporal validation set, they were 0.743, 0.629, 0.716, and 0.8. Specifically, the combined model demonstrated a sensitivity of 0.8 and a specificity of 0.8 in the temporal validation set. By comparing the PR and DCA curves, the combined model demonstrated better performance. Additionally, the combined model showed moderate improvements in INR and IDI compared to other models.

A clinical and CT-based radiomics model shows promise in predicting No. 253 LN metastasis in left-sided CRC and provides insights for optimizing IMA ligation strategies.