Motivated Interpretations of Survival Rates in Icon Arrays: An Issue of Frequency Format?

Area of Science:

• Health communication
• Risk perception
• Decision science

Background:

• Icon arrays are standard for communicating health risks like survival rates.
• However, they fail to mitigate motivated reasoning and undue optimism.
• This study investigates if the frequency format of icon arrays contributes to this vulnerability.

Purpose of the Study:

• To test if the impersonal frequency format of icon arrays makes them susceptible to motivated reasoning.
• To evaluate a novel intervention aimed at reducing undue optimism in risk perception.
• To explore the impact of gut-level beliefs versus objective data on treatment choices.

Main Methods:

• 399 female US participants from Amazon MTurk imagined a preterm infant scenario.
• Participants viewed icon arrays showing survival rates (15/100 or 45/100).
• An intervention prompted participants to personalize the survival frequency into a personal probability, while a control group focused on frequency.

Main Results:

• Gut-level optimism bias was present regarding infant survival chances; the intervention did not reduce it.
• Personalized gut-level beliefs, not the icon array data, predicted subsequent treatment decisions.
• The frequency format of icon arrays was not the primary reason for their ineffectiveness against motivated reasoning.

Conclusions:

• The ineffectiveness of icon arrays in buffering motivated reasoning is not due to their frequency format.
• Measuring gut-level interpretations of likelihood is crucial for understanding patient-treatment choices.
• This research underscores the psychological mechanisms influencing decisions in health contexts.