Spatial trends and archetype mapping of shooting performance in the NBA

This study aimed to examine spatial trends in field goal attempts and shooting efficiency in the NBA from 2015-2016 to 2024-2025 seasons and to identify offensive shooting archetypes based on shot location profiles. A total of 11,979 NBA regular season games were analyzed across five court zones: Restricted Area, In the Paint (Non-RA), Mid Range, Corner 3 pointers, and Above the Break 3 pointers. Temporal patterns were visualized using LOESS smoothing; proportional differences in shot distribution were tested using Aligned Rank Transform (ART) ANOVA, and offensive profiles were classified using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and k-means clustering. ART ANOVA showed a significant main effect of shot type (p < .001, η²_p = 0.86) and a significant shot type × season interaction (p < .001, η²_p = 0.44) indicating that shot distributions changed across zones. PCA showed that the first two components explained 97.48% of total variance. Clustering classified seasons into Paint Focused, Balanced and 3-Point Heavy profiles, indicating a progressive shift toward perimeter oriented offensive structures. These findings suggest a league wide reconfiguration of shooting profiles in the NBA, characterized by greater emphasis on perimeter oriented shot distributions and reduced reliance on mid range attempts.