Herd-Level Modeling of Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus (BVDV) Transmission in Cattle Herds in Southern Chile: Linking...

Bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) represents a serious threat to the cattle sector in Chile, indicating the need for a regionally defined control program. Ex-ante evaluations of program options using simulation modeling have proven to be a successful approach in providing decision-makers with relevant supporting insights in that respect. Given the complexity of bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) infection dynamics, simulation of BVD spread in a metapopulation requires detailed consideration of both within and between herd transmission dynamics. The aims of the study are (i) to investigate the dynamics of BVDV transmission in cattle herds in southern Chile by linking a within-herd transmission model (WHM) that accounts for the BVDV's unique characteristics with a between-herd model (BHM) that meets the demands for further regional control strategy evaluation; (ii) to suggest and discuss criteria for evaluation of the model approach and plausibility for later research and for support decision-making. This resulted in bringing forth a modeling rationale for complex disease spread simulation in metapopulations. BHM simulations under this approach show outcomes that agree with BVDV's known situation in Chile; dairy herds prevalence at endemic equilibrium reaches and maintains 75%, which agrees with estimations of BVDV active infection in dairy herds in southern Chile (77%). For the entire herd population, the infection always reaches endemic levels with a large proportion of infected herds (median = 60%), where herd prevalence was higher in the dairy herd class than in the remaining categories. Transmission probability variation affects the new infections picked, prevalence at endemic levels, and the velocity in which the infection spreads between herds. The fact that the presented approach was able to model a complex infection dynamic such BVDV, with sufficient confidence, provides evidence that this approach can be used to explore mitigation strategies to control BVDV in southern Chilean herds.