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Long-term tree population growth can predict woody encroachment patterns.

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Woody encroachment in drylands may not be solely due to human activity. A meta-analysis suggests long-term population growth, not just settlement effects, explains increased tree density.

Keywords:
demographynull modelpinyon–juniper woodlandsrange dynamicswoody encroachment

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Environmental Science
  • Forestry

Background:

  • Woody encroachment in drylands is often attributed to land-use changes and global trends.
  • Evidence linking these factors to woody encroachment is mixed, and underlying processes remain unclear.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To clarify the role of demographic processes in woody plant abundance changes.
  • To investigate the drivers of woody encroachment in western US woodlands.

Main Methods:

  • Conducted a meta-analysis of tree age structures from 29 woodland populations.
  • Estimated per-capita tree establishment rates over centuries using demographic models.

Main Results:

  • Found limited evidence of increased tree establishment rates after 19th-century settlement.
  • Observed age structures can be predicted by steady population growth models.
  • Tree establishment rates have declined in the last century, reaching historic lows.

Conclusions:

  • Long-term population increases, not solely anthropogenic factors, likely drive modern woody encroachment.
  • Overestimating settlement effects on stand structure can occur without considering demographic processes.