Participatory modeling meets African swine fever - Systems Thinking in action

Despite concerted efforts to control the disease, African swine fever (ASF) continues to spread in numerous regions across Europe. The circulation of the virus in wild boar populations poses an ongoing risk of transmission to domestic pig holdings and results in significant socio-economic losses. Controlling ASF in wild boar has proven to be a complex endeavor that affects many different sectors of society, with different focal points of interest and potential for conflict. To obtain a comprehensive understanding of stakeholder challenges and identify leverage points for effective interventions, a multidisciplinary Systems Thinking approach was applied. Participatory modeling workshops were conducted in an ASF-affected area of Germany with stakeholders from public institutions, forestry, conservation, agriculture, and the food industry in order to provide a comprehensive understanding of the stakeholders' perception of the complex system of ASF control. Causal Loop Diagrams were developed jointly with stakeholders to capture and visualize the interconnections within the system from stakeholders' perspective.

During the workshops, participants emphasized the need for transparent and rapid communication among all affected stakeholders and the importance of of raising public awareness about ASF for an effective response to outbreaks. Participants identified the complexity of the ASF control system, represented by a preliminary Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) with 260 loops, including 131 balancing and 129 reinforcing loops. These feedback processes illustrate the dynamic and interconnected nature of ASF control efforts, highlighting both challenges and opportunities for intervention. In addition, the participants stressed the need for early preparation of relevant resources for potential ASF outbreaks. Effectiveness and unintended consequences of control measures represented a major concern for the participants. Furthermore, participants emphasized the need to standardize and harmonize processes across different regions of Germany to improve the effectiveness of ASF control efforts.

The findings underscore the importance of integrating stakeholder insights into the design of ASF control measures to ensure their effectiveness and sustainability. The complexity of the system, as represented by the numerous feedback loops, highlights the need for adaptive and collaborative approaches in managing ASF outbreaks. Moving forward, discussions with scientists and decision-makers will be essential to refine and implement these insights into actionable strategies for effective ASF management. Engaging stakeholders in the modeling process fosters ownership, collaboration, and compliance, which are crucial for successful implementation of ASF control measures. Furthermore, transdisciplinary research is providing valuable insights for regions or countries yet unaffected by ASF, helping them prepare effectively for potential outbreaks.