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Updated: May 22, 2025
13:27
Exploring the Effects of Atmospheric Forcings on Evaporation: Experimental Integration of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer and Shallow Subsurface
Published on: June 8, 2015
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Monsoon hysteresis reveals atmospheric memory.
Anja Katzenberger1,2, Anders Levermann1,2,3
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, 14473 Germany.
Summary
Atmospheric moisture creates hysteresis in monsoon rainfall, leading to two stable states independent of ocean heat. This finding reveals a critical memory effect in Earth's climate system, impacting global agriculture.
Area of Science:
- Climate science
- Atmospheric dynamics
- Monsoon meteorology
Background:
- Ocean, cryosphere, and vegetation exhibit hysteresis, with states dependent on past conditions.
- Atmospheric fast mixing was thought to prevent multistability due to lack of memory.
Purpose of the Study:
- Investigate atmospheric hysteresis in monsoon circulation.
- Determine if the atmosphere possesses memory independent of oceanic heat storage.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of observational data.
- Simulation using a general circulation model.
Main Results:
- Atmospheric moisture accumulation generates hysteresis in monsoon circulation.
- Two stable atmospheric states exist for identical solar insolation.
- Hysteresis increases with decreasing oceanic memory and states persist over 60 years.
Conclusions:
- Monsoon rainfall dynamics involve seasonal transitions between two stable atmospheric states.
- Atmospheric moisture accumulation provides a memory effect, enabling multistability.
- Abrupt shifts in monsoon states have significant implications for global agriculture and food security.
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