The National Physician Shortage: Disconcerting HRSA and AAMC Reports

Recent years have seen a rise in concerns regarding the future sufficiency of the national physician workforce. Recent studies have highlighted this anticipated shortage of physicians. The first, by the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA), projects a total shortage of 124,180, 167,030, and 187,130 physicians in 2027, 2032, and 2037, respectively. Shortages are anticipated to be most severe in nonmetro areas and in primary care disciplines. A report released by the Association of American Medical Colleges projects a total national shortage of between 13,500 and 86,000 physicians by 2036 and a coincident shortage of between 20,200 and 40,400 primary care physicians. These projections warrant a diverse range of actions. Among these are steps to increase the pipeline producing new physicians, both of US and international origin. Increasing the supply and scope of practice of non-physician providers, nurse practitioners and physician assistants, could ameliorate the effects of physician shortages. Actions to address equity in physician compensation and reduce administrative burden, including that associated with electronic health records, could improve physician retention and well-being. All of these strategies should be taken under consideration at the soonest possible time, given the magnitude and apparent inevitability of already present and increasing physician shortages.