Impact of personalised risk predictions on breast cancer risk perceptions: insights from the BREATHE study

Biennial mammography screening is well-established for women aged 50 and above, but guidelines for younger women are less clear. Risk-based screening may provide women with key information to make informed decisions about their breast cancer risk and screening. This study examines how predicted breast cancer (BC) risk shapes women's perception and confidence in risk prediction.

Women aged 35 to 59 years were recruited for a prospective multi-centre cohort and stratified into above-average, average, or below-average BC risk categories based on genetic and non-genetic risk factors. Perceived risk was assessed at enrolment and after participants were informed of their predicted risk. We used ordinal models to identify predictors of perceived risk and logistic regression to examine the relationship between changes in perceived risk and confidence in the risk prediction.

At enrolment, 43% and 47% of 4112 participants perceived their BC risk pre-result as low or average, respectively. Thirty-five percent adjusted their perceived risk to align more closely with their predicted risk. Predictors of perceived risk post-result: perceived risk pre-result, predicted risk, ethnicity and having regular menstruation. Participants who underestimated their BC risk were nearly eight times more likely to have low confidence in the accuracy of their predicted risk (OR for underestimation vs. accurate perception: 7.94 [95% CI 5.60-11.28]). Predictors of perceived risk post-result: perceived risk pre-result, predicted risk, ethnicity and having regular menstruation. Confidence in risk prediction was lowest when women's perceived risk pre-result was lower than their predicted risk (OR_{-2 vs 0} [95%CI] 5.06 [3.67 to 6.97]).

Many women underestimated their BC risk, and their initial perceptions were influenced by the knowledge of their predicted risk. Women who underestimated their risk had less confidence in their predicted risk scores.