Geospatial Analysis of Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma Epidemiology in Europe From 2017 to 2021

Cutaneous melanoma is the most aggressive form of skin cancer. Although some studies have explored the epidemiology of melanoma in Europe, there is limited data on its spatial distribution.

A longitudinal ecological study was conducted to analyze melanoma incidence and mortality from 2017 to 2021 using data from the Global Burden of Disease database. Cases were identified using the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 and ICD-10 codes for both sexes across four European geographical regions, excluding Russia. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated. A distance-based spatial weights matrix was generated using GeoDa software to define neighborhood structure. Hotspot analysis of spatial clusters was conducted using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic. Additionally, the mortality-to-incidence ratio was calculated.

Between 2017 and 2021, a total of 606,448 new melanoma cases were diagnosed in Europe. Both sexes exhibited higher incidence and mortality rates in Northern Europe. All rates were consistently lower in women. For both sexes, incidence hotspots were identified in Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. In contrast, mortality hotspots are primarily observed in the Nordic countries, as well as in Eastern Europe. Incidence coldspots are predominantly found in southeastern Europe, whereas mortality coldspots are primarily concentrated in Spain and Portugal. The overall mortality-to-incidence ratio in Europe remained stable during the period, with an evident east-west gradient and higher mortality relative to incidence observed in Eastern Europe.

This analysis reveals distinct geographical patterns, characterized by a north-south gradient in incidence and mortality. In contrast, the mortality-to-incidence ratio follows an east-west gradient, highlighting significant disparities in healthcare access.