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Limited evidence for range shift-driven extinction in mountain biota.

Yi-Hsiu Chen1, Jonathan Lenoir2, I-Ching Chen1

  • 1Department of Life Sciences, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan City, Taiwan.

Science (New York, N.Y.)
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Mountain species are shifting upslope due to climate change, but evidence for widespread "escalator to extinction" threats is limited. Observed range shifts align with random expectations, suggesting complex ecosystem dynamics.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Climate Change Biology
  • Biodiversity Science

Background:

  • Mountain ecosystems face rapid species redistribution as organisms track warming temperatures.
  • The
  • escalator to extinction
  • phenomenon suggests mountaintop extinctions and range shift gaps threaten biodiversity.
  • Empirical evidence for these pervasive threats in mountain environments remains scarce.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To empirically assess the extent and nature of species redistribution in mountain ecosystems.
  • To evaluate the validity of proposed threats like mountaintop extinctions and range shift gaps.
  • To understand the drivers of observed changes in elevational range limits.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of 8800 historical and modern elevational range limits for 440 animal and 1629 plant species.
  • Comparison of observed range shifts against random expectations, incorporating geometric constraints.
  • Assessment of extinction debt and range expansion dynamics.

Main Results:

  • Little empirical evidence was found to support the proposed threats of widespread mountaintop extinctions and range shift gaps.
  • Observed species redistribution largely fell within random expectations, considering geometric limitations.
  • Delayed mountaintop extinctions were noted, alongside range expansions of both narrow-range and lowland species.

Conclusions:

  • The anticipated severe threats to mountain biodiversity from climate-driven range shifts appear less pronounced than previously suggested.
  • Species redistribution dynamics are complex, involving thermal niche underfilling and biotic homogenization.
  • Further research is needed to fully understand the long-term consequences for mountain ecosystems.