Trends, patterns, and risk factors of esophageal cancer mortality in China, 2008-2021: A National Mortality...

According to the International Agency for Research on Cancer, China had the highest mortality burden of esophageal cancer (EC) globally in 2022.

This study aims to analyze the national and provincial trends, patterns, and risk factors of EC deaths in China.

Data from the National Mortality Surveillance System were used to estimate national and provincial deaths, age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), and years of life lost (YLL). An age-period-cohort-based Nordpred model was used to predict trends until 2030. Multilevel Poisson and logistic regression were conductedto assess factors influencing EC mortality and the place of death.

From 2008 to 2021, EC deaths and YLLs decreased from 227,677 to 167,529 and from 5.32 million to 3.50 million, respectively. Meanwhile, the ASMR and age-standardized YLL rate decreased from 24.34 to 11.01 per 100,000 and from 535.91 to 231.08 per 100,000, respectively. By 2030, EC deaths and ASMR are predicted to decline to 150,768 and 7.85 per 100,000, respectively. Nationwide, the average age at death increased from 68.46 to 72.45 years, with an increasing proportion of YLLs in the 65-69 age group. Overall premature mortality was observed to decrease, except for an increase in YLLs among urban populations aged ≥60 years. Higher burdens were observed in rural areas compared to urban areas and among males compared to females. Nationwide, individuals with agriculture-related occupations and lower educational levels exhibited significantly higher risks of EC death. Regions with higher prevalences of smoking and harmful drinking, and lower educational, economic, and medical levels were significantly associated with high mortality. Home was the leading place of EC deaths (80.02 %).

The EC mortality burden in China is decreasing but remains a significant threat to public health. Promoting education, occupational prevention, healthy lifestyles, and medical treatment for targeted populations and regions is essential.