Shifts in avian migration phenologies do not compensate for changes to conditions en route in spring and fall

Several factors are known to affect bird migration timing, but no study has simultaneously compared the effects of temperature, land surface phenology, vegetation greenness, and relative humidity in both spring and fall. In addition, it is unclear whether long-term shifts in migration phenologies have kept pace with changing climates. For example, if migration shifts earlier in the spring, temperatures on migration dates may remain stable over time despite spring warming trends. If the phenologies of birds, plants, and insects shift asynchronously in response to changing climates, then birds may encounter reduced resource availability during migration. We estimated spring and fall 10%, 50%, and 90% cumulative migratory passage dates at 53 weather surveillance radar stations across the US Central Flyway. We determined which conditions (temperature, timing of green-up and dormancy, relative humidity, and enhanced vegetation index [EVI]) explained annual variation in migration phenologies. We also described decadal trends in environmental conditions and whether shifts in migration phenologies were sufficient to compensate for these changes. Annual changes to spring migration phenologies were best explained by anomalies in temperature, with earlier passage in warmer years. Fall migration occurred later on warmer, more humid years with higher EVI and later dormancy. Long-term adjustments in bird migration phenologies did not mitigate their exposure to changing environmental conditions. Although passage dates for all spring migration quantiles advanced significantly (~0.6 days/decade), temperatures on spring 10% passage dates increased, while 50% and 90% passage occurred closer to green-up. In the fall, temperatures increased on 50% and 90% passage dates. By contrast, the advancement of 10% passage (~1 day/decade) prevented early migrants from experiencing the cooling late-summer temperature trend. Warmer temperatures in mid to late fall may lead to earlier fruiting phenology and asynchronies with migratory passage, which occurred later in warmer years. Changes in temperature and land surface phenophases experienced by migrants suggest that resource availability during migration has changed and that adjustments to migration phenologies have not compensated for the effects of changing climates.