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Verhulst-type equation and the universal pattern for global population growth.

Agata Angelika Sojecka1, Aleksandra Drozd-Rzoska2

  • 1Department of Marketing, University of Economics, Katowice, Poland.

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|May 19, 2025
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Summary

Global population growth shows two distinct linear phases, challenging traditional Verhulst models. Analysis reveals historical events impact population dynamics, suggesting a need for refined scaling equations for accurate global population predictions.

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Mathematical Modeling
  • Sustainable Development

Background:

  • The Verhulst model is a standard for population growth.
  • Sustainable development concepts are linked to population dynamics.
  • Accurate global population data is crucial for long-term planning.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze global population growth patterns using a novel data preparation method.
  • To evaluate the adequacy of Verhulst-type scaling for describing population changes.
  • To identify potential correlations between population "disturbations" and historical events.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of per capita global population growth rate ([Formula: see text]) from 10,000 BCE to 2023.
  • Application of a 'reversed protocol' analysis involving data transformation and fitting.
  • Numerical filtering of collected data to create an optimal dataset.

Main Results:

  • Identified two near-linear domains for population growth rate changes (700 CE–1968 and 1968–2023).
  • Found that Verhulst scaling with a single parameter set does not adequately describe observed population changes.
  • Revealed links between local population "disturbations" and historical/prehistorical events.

Conclusions:

  • Standard Verhulst models may be insufficient for describing long-term global population dynamics.
  • A refined approach to data preparation and analysis is necessary for accurate population modeling.
  • Historical events have demonstrably impacted global population trends.