Verhulst-type equation and the universal pattern for global population growth

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Mathematical Modeling
• Sustainable Development

Background:

• The Verhulst model is a standard for population growth.
• Sustainable development concepts are linked to population dynamics.
• Accurate global population data is crucial for long-term planning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze global population growth patterns using a novel data preparation method.
• To evaluate the adequacy of Verhulst-type scaling for describing population changes.
• To identify potential correlations between population "disturbations" and historical events.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of per capita global population growth rate ([Formula: see text]) from 10,000 BCE to 2023.
• Application of a 'reversed protocol' analysis involving data transformation and fitting.
• Numerical filtering of collected data to create an optimal dataset.

Main Results:

• Identified two near-linear domains for population growth rate changes (700 CE–1968 and 1968–2023).
• Found that Verhulst scaling with a single parameter set does not adequately describe observed population changes.
• Revealed links between local population "disturbations" and historical/prehistorical events.

Conclusions:

• Standard Verhulst models may be insufficient for describing long-term global population dynamics.
• A refined approach to data preparation and analysis is necessary for accurate population modeling.
• Historical events have demonstrably impacted global population trends.