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Updated: May 23, 2025

Exploring the Effects of Atmospheric Forcings on Evaporation: Experimental Integration of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer and Shallow Subsurface
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A foundation model for the Earth system.

Cristian Bodnar1,2, Wessel P Bruinsma1, Ana Lucic1,3

  • 1Microsoft Research, AI for Science, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

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A new artificial intelligence (AI) foundation model, Aurora, offers faster and more accurate Earth system predictions for weather and climate. This AI approach democratizes access to crucial environmental forecasting data.

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Area of Science:

  • Earth System Science
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Geophysical Data Analysis

Background:

  • Earth system forecasting is vital for natural disaster mitigation and human progress.
  • Traditional numerical models are computationally expensive, limiting their widespread application.
  • Artificial intelligence (AI) shows potential for enhancing predictive performance and efficiency in Earth sciences.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Introduce Aurora, a large-scale foundation model for Earth system prediction.
  • Demonstrate AI's capability to improve forecasting accuracy and reduce computational costs.
  • Highlight the potential for democratizing access to environmental prediction tools.

Main Methods:

  • Trained Aurora on over one million hours of diverse geophysical data.
  • Evaluated Aurora's performance against operational forecasts for various Earth system domains.
  • Assessed the computational efficiency and fine-tuning capabilities of the model.

Main Results:

  • Aurora outperforms operational forecasts in predicting air quality, ocean waves, tropical cyclone tracks, and high-resolution weather.
  • Achieved these superior predictions at significantly lower computational costs.
  • Demonstrated Aurora's adaptability for diverse applications through fine-tuning.

Conclusions:

  • Aurora represents a significant advancement in AI-driven Earth system prediction.
  • The model offers a computationally efficient and accurate alternative to traditional forecasting methods.
  • Aurora has the potential to broaden accessibility to high-quality climate and weather information.