Temperature Exposure and Acute Cardiovascular Disease Risk in New York City: Case Time Series

Area of Science:

• Environmental Health
• Cardiovascular Epidemiology
• Climate Change Impact

Background:

• Existing research on myocardial infarction (MI) and ischemic stroke in relation to temperature shows inconsistent results, especially in urban settings.
• Understanding these associations is crucial for public health strategies, particularly in the context of a warming climate.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the association between various temperature metrics and the risk of MI and ischemic stroke.
• To explore the role of diurnal temperature range (DTR) as a potential exposure metric for cardiovascular events.

Main Methods:

• A case time series design was employed using data from patients admitted to Mount Sinai hospitals between 2011 and 2019.
• Daily mean, minimal, maximal temperatures, and DTR were obtained from geospatial models.
• Distributed lag nonlinear models were used to assess cumulative associations at lag days 0 to 6.

Main Results:

• Higher mean, maximal, and minimal temperatures were associated with increased odds of ischemic stroke (ORs ranging from 1.010 to 1.011).
• A nonlinear association was observed between DTR and MI; lower DTR (e.g., 10th percentile) was linked to higher MI odds (OR, 1.332).
• Higher DTR (90th percentile) showed a non-significant association with MI (OR, 1.041).

Conclusions:

• Increased temperature exposure is associated with a higher risk of ischemic stroke, underscoring climate change-related cardiovascular risks.
• Lower diurnal temperature range (DTR), more prevalent on colder days, is linked to increased myocardial infarction risk.
• DTR may offer a more comprehensive metric for assessing temperature-related cardiac effects than traditional measures.