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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jan 18, 2026

Spontaneous and Evoked Measures of Pain in Murine Models of Monoarticular Knee Pain
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Spontaneous and Evoked Measures of Pain in Murine Models of Monoarticular Knee Pain

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Developing and validating a machine learning model to predict chronic pain following total knee arthroplasty.

Ziliang Cheng1, Jingjing Li1, Weishan Wu2

  • 1Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Jinan, Shangdong, China.

The Knee
|May 22, 2025
PubMed
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Machine learning models can predict chronic pain after total knee arthroplasty (CPSP). The Random Forest model demonstrated the best performance in identifying high-risk patients, aiding early intervention.

Area of Science:

  • Orthopedics
  • Medical Informatics
  • Pain Management

Background:

  • Chronic pain after total knee arthroplasty (CPSP) significantly impacts patient function.
  • Early identification of patients at risk for CPSP is crucial for effective management.
  • Machine learning (ML) offers potential for developing predictive models for CPSP.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compare the performance of various ML algorithms in predicting CPSP.
  • To identify key risk factors associated with CPSP development.
  • To determine the most effective ML model for CPSP prediction.

Main Methods:

  • A retrospective cohort of 785 TKA patients was analyzed.
  • Nine high-risk factors were identified using LASSO regression.
Keywords:
Chronic postsurgical painMachine learningTotal knee arthroplasty

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  • Five ML models (DT, LGBM, SVM, RF, XGBoost) were trained and evaluated using AUC and Brier scores.
  • Main Results:

    • The overall incidence of CPSP was 39.6%.
    • Nine significant risk factors for CPSP were identified.
    • The Random Forest (RF) model achieved the highest AUC (0.918) and lowest Brier score (0.111), indicating superior predictive performance.

    Conclusions:

    • CPSP is a prevalent complication following TKA, necessitating clinical attention.
    • The identified nine risk factors provide insights into CPSP etiology.
    • The RF model effectively predicts CPSP, enabling early identification and intervention for at-risk patients.