Development of a Framework for Establishing 'Gold Standard' Outbreak Data from Submitted SARS-CoV-2 Genome Samples

Submitted genomic data for respiratory viruses reflect the emergence and spread of new variants. Although delays in submission limit the utility of these data for prospective surveillance, they may be useful for evaluating other surveillance sources. However, few studies have investigated the use of these data for evaluating aberration detection in surveillance systems. Our study used a Bayesian online change point detection algorithm (BOCP) to detect increases in the number of submitted genome samples as a means of establishing 'gold standard' dates of outbreak onset in multiple countries. We compared models using different data transformations and parameter values. BOCP detected a reasonable number of change points that were not sensitive to different parameter settings. We also found data transformations were essential prior to change point detection. Our study presents a framework for using global genomic submission data to develop 'gold standard' dates about the onset of outbreaks due to new variants.