The sensitivity and specificity of postbreeding plasma progesterone levels as a pregnancy test for dairy cows

Plasma progesterone levels on day 4 and day 8 postbreeding were measured for one hundred and eighty-four dairy cows. These two parameters (PPD4, PPD8), their absolute difference (PPDIFF) and their ratio (PPRATIO) were assessed for their ability to identify cows not conceiving, using the principles of sensitivity and specificity. PPD4 was significantly higher (p less than 0.10) and PPD8, PPDIFF and PPRATIO were significantly lower (p less than 0.01) in cows remaining open than in pregnant cows. Evaluating each parameter separately, PPDIFF greater than 3.00 units had the highest specificity, 85.7%, but a low sensitivity (27.0%). Combining two parameters using series interpretation to increase specificity resulted in the best combination of specificity (87%) and sensitivity (27%). Maximum specificity was 97% for PPD4 less than or equal to 1.00 units and PPD8 greater than 4.00 units, and also for PPD4 less than or equal to 1.00 units and PPDIFF greater than 3.00 units, but sensitivity was very low (7% and 10% respectively). Predictive values of the test results with the best specificity were evaluated; given the population pregnancy rate of 54%, none exceeded 50%, indicating that the plasma progesterone parameters were not very useful for identifying open dairy cows.