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Geospatial analysis of rainfall consistency and transition patterns in Iran
Saeideh Ashrafi1, Ali Reza Karbalaee2, Mohammad Kamangar1
1Department of Climatology, Faculty of Humanities, Zanjan University, Zanjan, Iran.
Precipitation patterns in Iran show significant regional differences. The central and eastern regions frequently experience dry spells, while the Caspian region has a higher chance of rain, impacting climate stability.
Area of Science:
- Climatology and Atmospheric Science
- Geospatial Analysis of Climate Data
Background:
- Climate phenomena are often stochastic, leading to varied outcomes.
- Understanding precipitation state transitions is crucial for regional climate analysis.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze precipitation state transition patterns in Iran using probabilistic models.
- To investigate sequential changes in precipitation and their impact on climate stability.
Main Methods:
- Utilized daily precipitation data from 411 synoptic stations (1970-2021).
- Applied kriging interpolation for daily precipitation maps.
- Employed precipitation state transition analysis (PSTA) to scrutinize transition patterns.
Main Results:
- Central, eastern, and southeastern Iran show high dry-to-dry day transition probabilities (>0.96).
- The Caspian region exhibits higher dry-to-rainy day transitions (>0.45) and lower dry-to-dry probabilities (<0.50).
- Geographical disparities are linked to proximity to highlands and moisture sources like the Caspian Sea.
Conclusions:
- Significant geographical variations in precipitation transition probabilities exist across Iran.
- These findings enhance predictions of climate change and precipitation stability.
- Understanding regional climate dynamics is key for effective water resource management.
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