Spatializing land-use scenarios to inform decision-making in an Ecuadorian mountain forest landscape

The effective conservation and management of critical ecosystems, such as tropical mountain forests, depends on informed decision-making in order to reduce biodiversity loss, protect ecosystem services, and mitigate socio-economic impacts. However, providing decision-makers with reliable, site-specific data to navigate the uncertainties of forest management remains a significant challenge. This study aimed to address this gap by translating optimized, non-spatial land-use scenarios from a previous study into spatially explicit deforestation projections for a mountain forest landscape in southern Ecuador. These scenarios represent three distinct management perspectives, including: (a) prioritizing socio-economic benefits and costs (SE), (b) balancing ecosystem services and socio-economic objectives (ES-SE), and (c) emphasizing biodiversity conservation alongside socio-economic considerations (B-SE). We generated spatial projections of forest loss over a 25-year period for each scenario, by integrating remote sensing and modeling techniques. The results offer graphical representations of forest cover changes, highlighting areas where deforestation is most likely to occur. By spatializing these forest trajectories, we provide a valuable tool for conservation planning, enabling stakeholders not only to anticipate the potential impacts of land-use management decisions but also to develop targeted strategies and evidence-based policies for the sustainable management of tropical mountain forests.