Understanding the global connection: Investigating the association between pork meat exports and trichinellosis

The presence of trichinellosis in a country can result in trade restrictions and product blockages due to safety concerns. This scenario is exemplified by the case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy, where fears of endemic diseases hindered trade between nations. Such endemic fears often lead to trade barriers and impede economic exchanges, underscoring the importance of effective prevention and control strategies to maintain market access and safeguard public health. The aim of the present study was to explore the relation between the volume of swine meat exports and reported trichinellosis cases. To this end, we combined data from economic and health sources, to create a unique database. An econometric approach based on the gravity model of international trade was developed to estimate the effects of trichinellosis outbreaks on exports of Argentina, Chile, Bulgaria and Romania, to their bilateral partners. The panel is balanced, and both time and country specific fixed effects were included in the estimation. Results suggest that trichinellosis outbreaks negatively impact trade between the origin and destination countries with a high statistical significance. Both being a member of the World Trade Organization and the presence of an active Free Trade Area between both countries, show a positive coefficient as expected. Given those findings, it is of upmost importance that a proper management of this type of disease is considered, due to the sensitivity consumers have to a possible infection from the products they consume, and how these impacts on the global trade decisions made both by companies as governments.