The Accelerating Exposure of European Protected Areas to Climate Change

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Climate Change Science
• Conservation Biology

Background:

• Ecosystems globally face climate change impacts, with varying spatial risk patterns.
• Protected area (PA) networks are crucial for biodiversity conservation but must adapt to climate change.
• Europe aims to expand its PA network to 30% by 2030, necessitating climate risk assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate future climate risk metrics (velocity, magnitude, residence time) across Europe.
• To assess the climate exposure of European PAs and non-protected sites.
• To evaluate climate risks for over 1000 European species of conservation concern within Natura 2000 sites.

Main Methods:

• Quantified four climate risk metrics: local velocity, analog velocity, magnitude, and residence time.
• Compared climate exposure between European PAs and control sites.
• Analyzed climate risk intensity for species associated with Natura 2000 sites.

Main Results:

• Significant spatial variations in climate change exposure across Europe were identified.
• Boreal, Steppic, and Pannonian regions exhibit faster climate change paces and greater shifts.
• Arctic, Alpine, and Mediterranean regions show higher climate change magnitudes, indicating substantial local climate differences.

Conclusions:

• Climate risk patterns are broadly consistent across emission scenarios, with higher risks under pessimistic scenarios.
• Species of conservation concern show varied climate exposure, with 11 highly dependent on Natura 2000 sites facing rapid change.
• Findings guide PA management and expansion by identifying stable climate areas and emphasizing network connectivity for species adaptation.