From lifecycle dynamics to risk zoning: Impact of mining restoration strategies on freshwater ecosystem services flow

Effective water resource management requires a comprehensive understanding of freshwater service flow (FSF) processes and their interactions with mine restoration strategies. This study develops a novel framework integrating FSF dynamics with regional risk assessment to address ecological restoration and resource management in mining-affected areas, demonstrated through Liaoning Province, China. The model integrates land use change scenarios based on different mine restoration strategies and evaluates their impacts in 24 simulations based on restoration strategies and social demand. Quantitative analysis reveals significant spatial differences in freshwater services supply and demand, with vegetation proportion and landscape connectivity having important mediating effects in their dynamics. The flow network is relatively complete, but upstream inflows are essential to alleviate resource pressure, particularly in western regions with limited or no inflows. Among 24 simulated scenarios, the food supply scenario under reduced demand (Scenario 10) exhibit optimal flow patterns, while the combined development scenario under growth demand (scenario 8) highlights vulnerabilities. Under a unified demand context, the surplus range of the combined development (CD) scenario is the smallest, while that of the ecological protection (EP) scenario is the largest, closely related to differences in restoration measures. Risk assessments reveal pronounced spatial disparities: core and improvement zones in the central Liao River and Taizi River basins exhibit low risks, while protection and restoration zones in the western Daling River basin face critical supply-demand states requiring focused interventions. Vulnerable zones, characterized by limited ecological functioning and no external inflows, necessitate moderate artificial measures. This research highlights the profound impact of mine restoration strategies on FSF dynamics and their role in reducing ecological risks. The proposed framework provides actionable insights for integrating FSF processes into environmental management, contributing to sustainable resource use and risk control in mining-impacted regions.