A Bureaucratic Theory of Statistics

Area of Science:

• Statistics
• Public Policy
• Bureaucratic Systems

Background:

• Statistics play a crucial role in policymaking, regulation, and bureaucratic systems.
• Current approaches often lead to debates regarding statistical interpretations.
• A need exists for a clearer framework to understand statistics' function in governance.

Purpose of the Study:

• To propose a framework for understanding the role of statistics in policymaking, regulation, and bureaucratic systems.
• To introduce and define the concept of "ex ante policy."
• To explore how "ex ante policy" can provide numerical foundations for governance.

Main Methods:

• Conceptual framework development.
• Examination of case studies, with a focus on clinical trials.
• Analysis of statistical rules and procedures designed before data collection.

Main Results:

• "Ex ante policy" provides a calculus of bureaucracy, establishing clear, transparent rules for governance.
• This framework simplifies debates surrounding inferential statistics, probability, p-values, and statistical rituals.
• It offers a mechanism for integrating statistical methodology into policy and regulatory processes.

Conclusions:

• There is a need for a deeper appreciation of the bureaucratic function of statistics.
• "Ex ante policy" offers a valuable approach to statistical governance.
• Future research should focus on policy-oriented statistical methodology.